Modeling the risks of cascade accidents in rail transport under war conditions
Kurilo Аrtem
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5139-0278
Kustov Maksim
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6960-6399
Zimin Sergej
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0514-2238
Hubenko Andrey
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
http://orcid.org/0009-0007-3647-3909
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2025-42-9
Keywords: railway transport, critical infrastructure, cascade accidents, wartime risks
Аnnotation
The study aims to improve the resilience of rail transport during the transportation of hazardous chemicals in conditions of martial law. The work provides a comprehensive analysis of current risks to rail infrastructure, compares threats in peacetime and wartime, and identifies key accident scenarios. A library of cascading accident scenarios has been developed, and modified models for assessing risks and the spread of toxic emissions have been proposed, taking into account specific factors of wartime. To improve the accuracy of forecasting, the use of CFD modeling is proposed. The need for this work lies in the fact that classical risk models, effective in peacetime, do not take into account the new nature of threats – targeted attacks, shelling, and sabotage. Rail transport, being critical infrastructure, has become a target for the enemy, and an accident involving hazardous chemicals can lead to catastrophic consequences: large-scale fires, explosions, toxic emissions, and cascading accidents. It has been established that the effectiveness of countermeasures is determined by the speed of hazard detection and readiness for coordinated action in combat conditions. Classic risk assessment models no longer fully reflect the new reality, where deliberate hostile actions are the main factor in accidents. The results obtained and the models developed form the basis for the transition from reactive to proactive risk management. They make it possible to develop adaptive response plans and action algorithms for rescue services, implement preventive routing of dangerous goods and reinforce critical nodes, as well as create an integrated risk management system. This is aimed at minimizing human casualties, environmental damage, and the strategic consequences of infrastructure damage, ensuring the resilience of the country’s transport system in a state of martial law.
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Increasing the readiness for operational work of the operational control chain
Sobyna Vitaliy
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6908-8037
Plisko Yuliia
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9526-1119
Chernysh Roman
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6245-0707
Shcherbak Serhii
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-0120
Feshchenko Andrey
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4869-6428
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2025-42-21
Keywords: operational control chain, instant readiness for operational work, emergency situation
Аnnotation
An analysis of the literature data was applied, on the basis of which the research problem of developing a method for predicting the readiness for operational operation of the operational control chain was formulated, taking into account the influence of the structure of simultaneous redundancy of nodes and telecommunications channels, depending on the intensity of failures and restoration obtained from the operation results. Based on the unification and understanding of the connections of individual nodes and telecommunications channels of the operational control chain into a holistic system, an appropriate probabilistic model was synthesized, which takes into account the redundancy of nodes and telecommunications channels and the normalized intensities of failures and restoration of the equipment of nodes and telecommunications channels. The abstraction method was used to highlight a significant sign of readiness for operational operation, and reliability flowcharts and analytical expressions were developed for the probabilistic assessment of the readiness for operational operation of the operational control chain for various structures with separate redundancy of nodes and telecommunications chan-nels. By applying the method of mathematical modeling, the readiness for operational operation of the operational control chain was predicted. Based on the method of comparing the results of mathematical modeling for various redundancy structures, a stable, regular influence of the failure and recovery flow parameters on the readiness for operational work has been revealed. It has been established that to achieve the required level of readiness for operational work of the operational dispatch control chain, it is advisable to optimize the failure and recovery intensities and the multiplicity of redundancy of nodes and telecommunications channels, while the required readiness indicator is achieved by using double and triple separate redundancy of nodes and tele-communications channels of the operational dispatch control chain.
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Assessment of soil contamination in areas affected by rocket-artillery strikes
Rashkevich Nina
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5124-6068
Melezhyk Roman
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6425-4147
Perehin Alina
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2062-5537
Krasnov Viacheslav
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8445-6843
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2025-42-19
Keywords: electrical conductivity, conductometry, explosion, soil aqueous extract, contamination, spatial–depth analysis, monitoring
Аnnotation
The article examines methodological approaches to assessing soil contamination in areas affected by rocket and artillery systems based on electrical conductivity indicators. The relevance of the study is driven by the need for rapid assessment of territorial conditions after explosive impacts, when traditional chemical analysis methods are too time-consuming or resource-intensive. The electrical conductivity of the aqueous extract is proposed as an indicator of the total content of dissolved ions, including metals and products of explosive reactions, which makes it possible to evaluate the potential toxicity of the soil and local environmental risks. To collect experimental data, soil samples were taken using a spatial–depth grid covering various distances from the explosion epicenter and different soil layers, ensuring the representativeness of the assessment of technogenic impact. Electrical conductivity measurements provided a basis for the mathematical description of the spatial–depth distribution of ionic load and enabled the proposal of an exponential attenuation model of the concentration effect. The model makes it possible to predict changes in contamination levels at intermediate points, assess the scale of explosion impacts, and trace the spread of soluble components within the soil profile, taking into account hydrogeological and terrain conditions. The results form a foundation for rapid assessment of technogenic load, operational zoning of territories, planning of civil protection measures, and forecasting long-term changes in soil conditions. The proposed approach combines experimental measurements and mathematical modeling to develop an adaptive monitoring system. Index-based data generalization ensures the comparison of contamination levels between sites, the identification of priority restoration zones, and the support of decision-making pro-cesses in post-conflict regions, as well as facilitating prompt responses to potential environmental emergencies.
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- Rashkevich, N., Shevchenko, R., Yeremenko, S. (2025). Development of an Organizational and Technical Method of Emergency Prevention of Technological Character оn the Territory Which Was Attacked by Rocket and Artillery Impacts. In: Babak, V., Zaporozhets, A. (eds) Systems, Decision and Control in Energy VII. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 595, 717–747. Available at: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-90466-0_33
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Impact of smoke screens on the fire safety level of shelters
Shakhov Stanislav
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9161-1696
Melnychenko Andrii
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7229-6926
Saveliev Dmytro
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4310-0437
Dement Maksym
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4975-384X
Artem Huz
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8869-2423
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2025-42-20
Keywords: smoke screens, shelters, fire safety, fire modeling, Fire Dynamics Simulator
Аnnotation
The object of the study is the impact of smoke screens on the fire safety level of shelters. The main hypothesis is that the presence of smoke screens along evacuation routes increases the time before evacuation paths are blocked by hazardous fire factors, thereby enhancing the fire safety level of shelters. The problem addressed was to obtain scientifically substantiated data on the impact of smoke screens on the fire safety of shelters. The results provided data on the dynamics of hazardous fire factors with and without smoke screens. Comparative analysis showed that with smoke screens, the time to reach critical visibility loss at sensor №1 was 33 % slower. Thus, the smoke screen kept the evacuation exit viable for an additional 31 seconds, which is a significant margin for evacuation. Additionally, over 300 seconds, the smoke screen prevented exceeding the permissible limits for factors such as temperature and partial oxygen density. At sensor № 2, the time to reach critical visibility loss was 5 % slower with smoke screens, which is not a significant margin for evacuation. At sensor №3, located near the fire outbreak room, the time to reach critical visibility loss was identical with and without smoke screens, amounting to 37 seconds. Thus, the analysis of the modeling results confirms the appropriateness of smoke screens in enhancing the fire safety level of shelters. Smoke screens extend the time during which evacuation routes remain viable for evacuation. These findings can be used as compensatory measures in cases where evacuation routes in shelters (lacking forced smoke extraction systems) become blocked by hazardous fire factors faster than the duration of evacuation. However, the obtained results require validation through a full-scale experiment using a model evacuation route (corridor) for final confirmation.
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Investigation of the influence of fire protection systems on individual fire risk
Savchenko Olesia
Institute for Scientific Research on Civil Protection
of the National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4140-3055
Nizhnyk Vadym
Institute for Scientific Research on Civil Protection
of the National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3370-9027
Koval Roman
Institute for Scientific Research on Civil Protection
of the National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8970-2831
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2025-42-18
Keywords: fire protection, risk, activation efficiency, alarm, fire extinguishing, smoke protection
Аnnotation
The paper presents the results of experimental studies on the impact of fire protection systems on individual fire risk in buildings. It is shown that the current state of the issue is determined by the lack of scientifically grounded patterns that would quantitatively describe the influence of effective operation of fire protection systems on the parameters of hazardous fire factors and, accordingly, on the calculated values of individual fire risk. A contradiction has been identified between practical approaches to ensuring fire safety and risk assessment methods that do not take into account the effectiveness of technical systems. A program and methodology for an experimental study have been proposed to verify theoretical provisions regarding the influence of fire protection systems on the dynamics of fire development as a derivative of individual fire risk. Criteria and controlled conditions have been defined, namely: temperature, smoke level, response time of the fire protection system, and the time to reach critical values of these criteria for human life. The obtained results made it possible to determine the probability coefficients of effective operation of fire protection systems and to validate the theoretical research. It has been established that the integrated functioning of fire protection systems provides a synergistic effect, reducing the rate of development of hazardous fire factors, extending the time to reach critical values such as temperature and smoke level, and thereby increasing the level of human safety during evacuation, which ultimately affects the value of individual fire risk. The research results were used to improve the methodology for assessing individual fire risk and can be applied in the development of regulatory requirements for equipping facilities with fire protection systems.
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