Determination of viscouselastic properties of pressure fire hoses with a diameter of 150 mm

 

Sergii Nazarenko

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0891-0335

 

Gennadiy Chernobay

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8805-3710

 

Oleksandr Kolienov

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3736-9165

 

Pavlo Borodych

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9933-8498

 

Borys Kryvoshei

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2561-5568

 

Vladyslav Titarev

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3183-1689

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-33-12

 

Keywords: pressure fire hose, elasticity module, rigidity, hysteresis, dissipative properties

 

Abstract

The presented experimental studies to determine the viscoelastic characteristics of a pressure head fire hose of the "T" type with an inner diameter of 150 mm under static load conditions. In the course of the work, a number of full-scale tensile experiments were carried out with a sample under conditions of static loading-unloading cycles. The tests consisted of 7 cycles (mode) of loading-unloading, which were carried out with a two-minute interval. Taking into account the experimental data, the tensile stiffness of the sleeve material in the longitudinal (along the base) direction was determined. It has been established that numerous results of mechanical properties depend on the "history" of the sleeve load, that is, in the first two load modes, the rigidity is given, increased, and only then, in the next ones, they stabilized. This, together with a significant reduction in residual deformations, enhances the elastic properties of the fire hose material. The results of the studies have shown that during the first two cycles the material demonstrates the manifestation of short-term creep, which is stabilized at 5-7 modes. To general-ize the experimental studies, the results are approximated by the corresponding trend lines. Deformation curves of the samples were determined under cyclic loading-unloading conditions, which formed hysteresis loops. When analyzing the corresponding curves, it was found that: firstly, during the first two three cycles of loading-unloading, the area of the hysteresis loops decreases. Secondly, the angle of inclination of the hysteresis loops also decreased with each loading-unloading cycle. It was found that the dissipation coefficients of the sleeve material when stretched in the longitudinal direction in the first two or three test modes increases. In subsequent tests (cycle 4-7), the dissipation coefficients decrease and then stabilize at a level of 0.42.

 

References

  1. Lee, G. -C., Kim, H. -E., Park, J. -W., Jin, H. -L., Lee, Y. -S., Kim, J., -H. (2011). An expermental study and finite element analysis for finding leakage path in high pressure hose assembly. International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manu-facturing, 12, 3, 537–542. doi: 10.1007/s12541-011-0067-y
  2. Pavlouskova, Z., Klakurkova, L., Man, O. Celko, L., Svejcar, J. (2015). As-sessment of the cause of cracking of hydraulic hose clamps. Engineering Failure Analysis, 56, 14–19. doi: 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2015.05.014
  3. Dong-Hyun, Y., Beom-Seon, J., Ki-Ho, Y. (2017). Nonlinear finite element analysis of failure modes and ultimate strength of flexible pipes. Marine Structures, 54, 50–72. doi: 10.1016/j.marstruc.2017.03.007
  4. Haseeb, A., Jun, T., Fazal, M., Masjuki, H. (2011). Degradation of physical properties of different elastomers upon exposure to palm biodiesel. Energy, 36, 3, 1814–1819. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.12.023
  5. Cho, J., Yoon, Y., Seo, C., Kim, Y. (2015). Fatigue life assessment of fabric braided composite rubber hose in complicated large deformation cyclic motion. Finite Elements in Analysis and Design, 100, 65–76. doi: 10.1016/j.finel. 2015.03.002
  6. Cho, J., Yoon, Y. (2016). Large deformation analysis of anisotropic rubber hose along cyclic path by homogenization and path interpolation methods. Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, 30, 2, 789–795. doi: 10.1007/ s12206-016-0134-5
  7. Roland, T., David, M., Oliver, S., Roman, L. (2019). Mechanical performance of textile-reinforced hoses assessed by a truss-based unit cell model. International Journal of Engineering Science, 141, 47–66. doi: 10.1016/j.ijengsci. 2019.05.006
  8. Larin, O. (2015). Probabilistic model of fatigue damage accumulation in rub-berlike materials. Strength of Materials, 47, 6, 849–858.
  9. Larin, O., Morozov, O., Nazarenko, S., Chernobay, G., Kalynovskyi, A., Kova-lenko, R., Fedulova, S., & Pustovoitov, P. (2019). Determining mechanical properties of a pressure fire hose the type of «T». Eastern-European Journal Of Enterprise Tech-nologies, 6 (7 (102)), 63–70. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2019.184645
  10. Nazarenko, S., Kovalenko, R., Asotskyi, V., Chernobay, G., Kalynovskyi, A., Tsebriuk, I., Shapovalov, O., Shasha, I., Demianyshyn, V., Demchenko, A. (2020). De-termining mechanical properties at the shear of the material of «T» type pressure fire hose based on torsion tests. Eastern-European Journal Of Enterprise Technologies, 5 (7 (107)), 45–55. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2020.212269
  11. Fedorko, G., Molnar, V., Dovica, M., Toth, T., Fabianova, J. (2015). Failure analysis of irreversible changes in the construction of the damaged rubber hoses. Engineering Failure Analysis, 58, 31–43. doi: 10.1016/j.engfailanal. 2015.08.042
  12. Stepanov, O., Bratoljubova, E., Shirokov, A. (2012). Issledovanie vlijanija razlichnyh faktorov na prochnost' napornyh pozharnyh rukavov pri gidravlicheskom vozdejstvii. Tehnologija tekstil'noj promyshlennosti, 4, 105–108.

Experimental determination of the inertia of activation of sprinklers of automatic water extinguishing systems

 

Serhij Bondarenko

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4687-1763

 

Michailo Murin

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9898-0128

 

Igor Jakovlev

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2802-3733

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-33-11

 

Keywords: automatic water fire extinguishing system, sprinkler, response time index, linear speed of fire development, calculated area for water consumption

 

Abstract

Experimental data on the inertia of sprinklers with a response temperature of 57 ºС were obtained, taking into account the rate of temperature rise, and an empirical dependence of the response time of a sprinkler from the moment of fire occurrence was obtained. This makes it possible to evaluate the use of this type of sprinklers for the protection of various premises, depending on the class of fire hazard. When choosing the initial data for the design of automatic sprinkler systems for water fire extinguishing, depending on the class of premises for fire hazard, two approaches are visible. For rooms of class OH, with an increase in fire hazard, the intensity of the extinguishing agent supply remains constant (I0 = 5 mm/min), and the extinguishing area for calculating the water consumption increases (Fр = 72 m2 for OH1, Fр = 144 m2 for OH2, Fр = 216 m2 for OH3, Fp = 360 m2 for OH4). For HHP premises, a different approach is taken. When designing a sprinkler automatic water fire extinguishing system, the calculated area for determining the total water consumption remains constant (Fр = 260 m2) and the intensity of the extinguishing agent supply changes (I0 = 7.5 mm/min for ННР1, I0 = 10 mm/min for ННР2, I0 = 12.5 mm/min for HHP3). However, both the first approach and the second imply that the area of fire extinguishing remains a fixed value, and the linear rate of fire development is not explicitly taken into account anywhere. Therefore, obtaining data on the response time of the sprinkler, depending on the rate of rise of the fire temperature in the protected room, will determine the minimum irrigation area of the fire center. The optimal choice of the calculated area for the water consumption when extinguishing a fire will optimize the parameters of the hydraulic distribution network, the choice of system elements, and calculate the effectiveness of the fire extinguishing system.

 

References

  1. John, R., Hall, Jr. (2013). U.S. Experience with Sprinklers and Other Automatic Fire Extinguishing Equipment. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA. Retrieve from https://nfsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/US_experience_with_sprinklers_2009.pdf
  2. Ahrens, M. (2017). U.S. experience with sprinklers. Fire Analysis and Research Division, National Fire Protection Association. Retrieve from https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/files/news-and-research/fire-statistics-and-reports/suppression/ossprinklers.pdf
  3. John, R., Hall, Jr., Ahrens, M., Evarts, D. (2012). Fire Protection Research Foundation report: Sprinkler Impact on Fire Injury. Retrieve from https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/Fire-Sprinkler-Initiative/Benefits-of-Home-Fire-Sprinklers/Sprinkler-Performance-and-Benefits/Impact-of-fire-sprinklers-on-firefighter-injuries.ashx
  4. ISO 6182-1:2014(en) Fire protection – Automatic sprinkler systems – Part 1: Requirements and test methods for sprinklers. Retrieve from https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:6182:-1:ed-3:v1:en
  5. LPS 1039 Requirements and testing methods for automatic sprinklers. Issue 5.2. Retrieve from https://www.redbooklive.com/download/pdf/LPS1039.pdf
  6. Liu, H., Yuen, A. C. Y., Cordeiro, I., Han, Y., Chen, B. Y. T., Chan, Q. N., Kook, S., Yeoh, G. H. (2021). A novel stochastic approach to study water droplet/flame interaction of water mist systems. Numerical Heat Transfer. Part A: Applications, 79(8), 570–593. doi: 10.1080/10407782.2021.1872272
  7. Kagou, G., Kola, B., Mouangue, R. (2016). CFD studies of the propagation and extinction of flame in an under-ventilated and over-ventilated enclosure. Journal of Taibah University for Science, 10(3), 393–402. doi: 10.1016/j.jtusci.2015.04.010
  8. Nasif, M. S., Fekry, M., Ismail, F. B. (2016). CFD investigation on the effect of varying fire sprinkler orientation on sprinkler activation time. ARPN Journal of Engi-neering and Applied Sciences, 11(22), 12919–12922. Retrieve from http://www.arpnjournals.org/jeas/research_papers/rp_2016/jeas_1116_5323.pdf
  9. Arvidson, M. (2018). The Response Time of Different Sprinkler Glass Bulbs in a Residential Room Fire Scenario. Fire Technology, 54(5), 1265–1282. doi: 10.1007/s10694-018-0729-8
  10. Hopkin, C., Spearpoint, M., Bittern, A. Using experimental sprinkler actuation times to assess the performance of Fire Dynamics Simulator. Journal of Fire Sciences, 36 (4), 342–361. doi:10.1177/0734904118772306
  11. Lin, S.L., Chow, W.K., Woo, Y.K., Szeto, D.F., Su, C. H. (2019). Effect of heat collector plate on thermal sensitivity of sprinkler heads in large terminal Halls. Journal of Building Engineering, 25, 100787. doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2019.100787
  12. Węgrzyński, W., Krajewski, G., Tofiło P., Król, A., Król, M. (2020). 3D mapping of the sprinkler activation time. Energies, 13(6), 1450. doi: 10.3390/en13061450
  13. Hopkin, C., Spearpoint, M. (2021). Numerical simulations of concealed resi-dential sprinkler head activation time in a standard thermal response room test. Journal of Fire Sciences, 42(1), 98–111. doi: 10.1177/0143624420953302
  14. Vondou, F. M., Abbe, C. V. N., Zaida, J. T., Mvogo, P. O., Mouangue, R. (2021). Experimental Study of the Effect of Confining on the Development of Fire in a Closed Compartment. Journal of Combustion, 2021, 6662830. doi:10.1155/2021/6662830
  15. BS EN 12845 (2015). Fixed Fire Fighting Systems – Automatic Sprinkler Systems – Design, Installation and Maintenance Retrieve from https://standards.globalspec.com/std/14212825/bs-en-12845
  16. Antonov, I., Velichkova, R., Antonov, S., Grozdanov, K. (2020). Mathemati-cal Modeling and Simulation of Development of the Fires in Confined Spaces. doi: 10.5772/intechopen.91274
  17. Koshmarov, Yu., Puzach, S., Andreev, V. et all. (2012). Forecasting of dan-gerous factors of fire indoors. Academy of State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emer-gency Situations, Moscow, Russia. Retrieve from https://www.twirpx.com/file/244202

Analysis of the impact of the number of personnel of the fire and rescue vehicle during the operational deployment

 

Dmytro Beliuchenko

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7782-2019

 

Ihor Hrytsyna

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2581-1614

 

Victor Strelets

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9109-8714

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-33-9

 

Keywords: operational calculation of the department, fire and rescue vehicle, fire tanker, operational deployment, operational calculation number, statistical analysis, time distribution

 

Abstract

A methodology for conducting experimental studies has been developed, which allows one to obtain quantitative estimates of the time of operational deployment from fire tankers, which will simultaneously characterize the class of the fire fighting vehicle, the level of preparedness of personnel and the influence of the number of crews of departments of fire fighting vehicles of different classes by the first operational and rescue unit during liquidation (localization) of technogenic emergencies. Experimental studies, in which subjects from among the cadets of the National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine and fire-fighting operational and rescue units of the Main Directorate of the State Service of Ukraine for Emergency Situations in the Kharkiv region participated, showed that at a significance level of α= 0.05, the results obtained during certain exercises on operational deployment, taking into account the number of the composition of the operational calculation from tank trucks of various classes, in all cases differ significantly. It is shown that at the stage of primary training of rescuers, it is necessary to pay increased atten-tion to training in performing various options for operational deployment from a fire-rescue vehicle in conditions of a decrease in the number of the operational crew of the department, determining the necessary additional operations that must be performed by each rescuer in the absence of the corresponding operational crew number. The strength of the results obtained is the determination of reliable indicators (with a significance level of α= 0.05), which can be the basis for substantiating specific proposals for organizing operational work in conditions of a reduced number of operational calculations for operational and rescue units of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, fire rescue vehicles of different classes, primarily standards for an objective assessment of the level of preparedness of personnel.

 

References

  1. Informacijna – analitychna dovidka pro vynyknennja NS v Ukrai'ni u 2020 ro-ci. Retrieved from https://www.dsns.gov.ua/ua/Dovidka-za-kvartal/119288.html
  2. World Fire Statistics (2019). N. N. Brushlinsky, M. Ahrens, P. Wagner. № 24. 64. Retrieved from https://www.ctif.org/sites/default/files/2019-04/CTIF_Report24_ERG.pdf
  3. Review of Emergency Responder Standard Operating Procedures. Retrieved from https://www.nfpa.org//-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/RFReviewOfEmergencyResponderSOPSOGs.pdf
  4. Fire and Emergency Service Personnel Knowledge and Skills Proficiency. Re-trieved from https://www.nfpa.org//-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/RFFEMSProficiency.pdf
  5. Evaluation of Fire Service Training Fires. Retrieved from: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/RFEvaluationofFireServiceTraining.ashx
  6. Training for failure in the united states fire service. Retrieved from https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/64038/19Dec_O%27Neal_David.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
  7. Framework for the competence of rescue and fire fighting service (RFFS) personnel. Retrieved from https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/CAP699E3Jan2017(BM).pdf
  8. NFPA 1001, Standard for Fire Fighter Professional Qualifications. Retrieved from https://sa5e44a321405f035.jimcontent.com/download/version/1268192963/module/3735826357/name/61ns.pdf
  9. NFPA 1710 Standard for the Organization and Deployment of Fire Sup-pression Operations, Emergency Medical Operations, and Special Operations to the Public by Career Fire Departments. Retrieved from https://www.como.gov/CMS/granicus/downloadfile.php?id=11785&type=attachment
  10. NFPA 1720. Standard for the Organization and Deployment of Fire Suppres Operations, Emergency Medical Operations, and Special Operations to the Public by Volunteer Fire Departments. Retrieved from http://www.niordc.ir/uploads/nfpa_1720_-.pdf
  11. Alternative deployment models for the fire service. Retrieved from https://www.firerescue1.com/fire-chief/articles/alternative-deployment-models-for-the-fire-service-34lJK0Q3UF5ZjRiB
  12. Fire and emergency service personnel knowledge and skills proficiency. Re-trieved from https://www.nfpa.org//-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/RFFEMSProficiency.pdf
  13. Training Related Risk Factors of Firefighters. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320545566_Training_Related_Risk_Factors_of_Firefighters
  14. Training Related Risk Factors of Firefighters. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320545566_Training_Related_Risk_Factors_of_Firefighters
  15. NFPA'"RESEARCH" US Fire Department Profile 2018. Retrieved from https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/osfdprofile.pdf
  16. Fire Protection Handbook. Retrieved from https://tocanthike.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/nfpa-fire-protection-handbook-20th-edition.pdf
  17. Principal Emergency Response and Preparedness. Requirements and Guid-ance. Retrieved from https://www.osha.gov/sites/default/files/publications/osha3122.pdf.
  18. NFPA 1410 Standard on Training for Initial Emergency Scene Operations. Retrieved from http://www.niordc.ir/uploads/nfpa_1410_-_2005.pdf
  19. Features of the organization fighting fires at low temperatures. Retrieved from https://narfu.ru/upload/iblock/8ca/mbwsrrzqgqfprsjtwbrrcq%20likziilcgmqtlrziqkglez%20uoirueszlbewgn%20cpnzkadzskkmjj%20ip%20enzzakluhqvhqpxh.pdf
  20. Fire and emergency service personnel knowledge and skills proficiency. Re-trieved from https://www.nfpa.org//-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/RFFEMSProficiency.pdf
  21. Beljuchenko, D. Ju., Strilec', V. M. (2020). Bagatofaktorna ocinka efektyvnosti operatyvnogo rozgortannja pozhezhnyh avtomobiliv v umovah vynyknennja nadzvychajnyh sytuacij tehnogennogo harakteru // Komunal'ne gospodarstvo mist. Harkiv. 156. 204-211. doi: 10.33042/2522-1809-2020-3-156-204-211
  22. Illowsky, B., Dean, S. (2014). Introductory Statistics. OpenStax CNX, 67–74. Retrieved from https://openstax.org/details/introductory-statistics
  23. Denworth, L. (2019). A Significant Problem: Standard scientific methods are under fire. Journal of Scientific American, 321(4), 62–67. Retrieved from https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_American

Method of determination of safety zones when disposal of aviation devices

 

Ihor Neklonskyі

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5561-4945

 

Oleg Smirnov

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1237-8700

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-33-10

 

Keywords: aerial bombs, disposal technology, radius of destruction, fragment flow density

 

Abstract

The necessity of development of highly effective technology of aviation bombs utilization and a way of definition of safety zones at utilization of the corresponding aircraft means of destruction is proved. To solve this problem, it was used a systematic approach, in which scientific methods of generalization and comparison, analysis and synthesis, methods of mathematical modeling are used. To substantiate effective solutions to ensure safe conditions for the organization of work, a method for determining safety zones for the disposal of aircraft damage has been proposed. The method allows to take into account the high-explosive and fragmentation action of aircraft means of destruction during their detonation. To estimate the degree of damage to objects, generalized empirical data corresponding to the laws of damage are used, which are presented as the dependence of the probability of damage on the parameters characterizing the effect, – overpressure at the shock wave front, specific shock wave pulse. The statement that overpressure and specific impulse are functions of the mass of the energy carrier (explosive) and the distance to the center of the explosion is practically realized. This allows us to move from the parametric law of defeat to the coordinate law of defeat. The transition from calculations to a graphic image is carried out using relations that relate the parameters of the blast wave with the values of distance and TNT equivalent. The calculations take into account the possibility of damage to objects (people) from the action of flying debris. For this purpose the law of a fragment on a trajectory speed change is used. Based on the calculations of the parameters of action zones of dangerous factors of aviation bombs explosion, the corresponding conclusions were made regarding the characteristics of the safety zones during the disposal of aircraft damage. The proposed method for determining safety zones implements a mathematical apparatus that allows to relate the energy to TNT equivalent, and can be used as a conservative estimate for rapid analysis of the stability of objects, provided they are located in the middle and far zones from the source of the explosion..

 

References

  1. Ferreira, C., Ribeiro, J., Clift, R., & Freire, F. (2019). A Circular Economy Approach to Military Munitions: Valorization of Energetic Material from Ammunition Disposal through Incorporation in Civil Explosives. Sustainability, 11(1), 1–14. doi: 10.3390/su11010255
  2. Liu, H. Wang, Y., Zhu, H. (2015). The technology method research of scrap ammunition destruction, 3rd International Conference on Mechanical Engineering and Intelligent Systems (ICMEIS 2015). Atlantis Press, 201–205. doi:10.2991/icmeis-15.2015.39
  3. Drobakha, Hr., Neklonskyi, I., Kateshchenok, A., Sobyna, V., Taraduda, D., Borysova, L., & Lysachenko, I. (2019). Structural and functional simulation of interaction in the field of aviation safety by using matrices. Archives of Materials Science and Engineering, 95, 2, 67–76. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu. edu.ua /handle/ 123456789/9000
  4. Neklonskyi, I. M., Smyrnov, O. M. (2020). Matematychna model protsesu utylizatsii taktychnykh raket 9M21. Problemy nadzvychainykh sytuatsii, 1(31), 211–225. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/11794
  5. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. (2015). International ammunition technical guideline IATG 10.10:2015 [E]. Demilitarization and destruction of conventional ammunition. New York : USA. Retrieved from https://s3.amazonaws.com/unoda-web/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/IATG-10.10-Demilitarization-and-Destruction-V.2.pdf
  6. Karlos, V., & Solomos, G. (2013). Calculation of Blast Loads for Application to Structural Components. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. doi:10.2788/61866
  7. Solomos, G., Larcher, M., Valsamos, G., Karlos, V., & Casadei, F. (2020). A survey of computational models for blast induced human injuries for security and defence applications : JRC Technical Reports. Ispra : European Commission. doi:10.2760/685
  8. Valsamos, G., Casadei, F., Larcher, M., & Solomos, G. (2015). Implementation of Flying Debris Fatal Risk Calculation in EUROPLEXUS. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. doi:10.2788/058640
  9. Larcher, M., Casadei F., & Solomos, G. (2014). Simulation of blast waves by using mapping technology in EUROPLEXUS. Publications Office of the European Union. doi: 10.2788/98310
  10. Costin, N. S. (2014). The explosive atmosphere conditions required to carry out an improvised explosive device and numerical simulation of detonation. Revista Academiei Fortelor Terestre, 1(73), 132–137. Retrieved from https://www.armyacademy.ro/reviste/rev1_2014/NICULAE.pdf

Investigation of the causes of emergencies based on official statistics

 

Roman Kovalenko

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2083-7601

 

Andrii Kalynovskyi

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-1021-5799

 

Maxim Zhuravskij

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8356-8600

 

Valeriya Kashchavtseva

Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kharkоv region

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1584-4754

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-33-8

 

Keywords: emergency, fire, statistical data, correlation, predictive model

 

Abstract

The article examines the relationship between the official indicators of demographic, social and economic statistics and the number of emergencies that occur on the territory of the regions of Ukraine. The following were selected as indicators of demographic, social and economic statistics: population size; education and waste management; total area of the housing stock; sown area of grain and leguminous crops; real disposable income, as a percentage of the corresponding period of the previous year. The relationship between these indicators was checked by conducting a correlation analysis. In 56% of the studied cases between the total number of emergencies and the indicator of the population living in the territory of the regions, and in the city of Kiev, there is an average and high strength of the correlation. Between the other indicators of demographic, social and economic statistics analyzed in the work and the total number of emergencies, there were significantly fewer cases of detection of medium and high strength of correlations. The reason for obtaining negative values of the correlation coefficients between the total number of emergencies and the indicator of generation and waste management is not clear. At the same time, the numerical value of the correlation coefficients makes it possible to assert about the average and high strength of correlations. This is likely due to the small sample size. The established relationship between the indicators of the total number of emergencies and the population size was described by a linear regression equation. The adequacy of the regression model was checked by Fisher's criterion, and provides a correlation coefficient of at least 0,7, which confirms the reliability of the developed mathematical model.

 

References

  1. Alfonso, G-M. (2020). A GIS-physically-based emergency methodology for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslide zonation. Geomorphology, 359, 107121. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107121
  2. Leonardo, N. F., Didier, A.V-O, Liang, Z., Manoel, F. C., Elbert, E. N. M. (2020). Global fire season severity analysis and forecasting. Computers & Geosciences, 134, 104339. doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2019.104339
  3. Pham, B. T., Jaafari, A., Avand, M., [et al.]. (2020). Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Forest Fire Modeling and Prediction. Symmetry, 12, 1022. doi: 10.3390/sym12061022
  4. George, E. S., Imad, H. E., George, M. (2011). Efficient forest fire occurrence prediction for developing countries using two weather parameters. Engineering Appli-cations of Artificial Intelligence, 24, 888‒894. doi: 10.1016/j.engappai.2011.02.017
  5. Volkan, S., Omer, K., Merih, G. (2020). A Bayesian network model for predic-tion and analysis of possible forest fire causes. Forest Ecology and Management, 457, 117723. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117723
  6. Guangyin, J., Qi. W., Cunchao, Z., Yanghe, F., Jincai, H., Xingchen, H. (2020). Urban Fire Situation Forecasting: Deep sequence learning with spatio-temporal dynamics. Applied Soft Computing, 97, 106730. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106730
  7. Mohsen, Y., Seyyed, A. H., Mahdi, F. (2021). Spatiotemporally explicit earth-quake prediction using deep neural network. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineer-ing, 144, 106663. doi: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2021.106663
  8. Rebecca, E., Hannah, C., Andrea, F., [et al.]. (2020). Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50, 101811. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
  9. World Fire Statistics. Report № 25. Retrieved from http://www.ctif.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/CTIF_Report25.pdf [in English].
  10. Informacijno-anality`chna dovidka pro vy`ny`knennya NS v Ukrayini upro-dovzh 2019 roku. Retrieved from https://www.dsns.gov.ua/ua/Dovidka-za-kvartal/103179.html [in Ukrainian].