Development of an algorithm for optimal risk management of hazardous events at machine-building enterprises

Vitalii Bezsonnyi

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

http://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-8089-7724

Roman Ponomarenko

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6300-3108

Oleg Tretyakov

ТОВ ІПРІС-ПРОФІЛЬ

http://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-0457-9553

Kostiantyn Karpets

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6388-7647

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-33-5

Keywords: risk management, production risk, backpack packaging model

Abstract

The problem of improving the effectiveness of risk management in hazardous events in the machine-building enterprise by using an improved approach to risk assessment and for the first time to optimize the cost of occupational safety measures in the machine-building enterprises used the problem of "backpack packaging" to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. Identification and analysis of existing risks at SE "Plant "Electrovazhmash" were carried out using the method of structured assessment. This took into account not only the possibility of a dangerous event, but also the consequences that may arise from it. It was found that the most common risks are injuries from moving equipment (39%), injuries from falls from a height (17%), injuries from electric shock (15%). But the greatest dangers are associated with poisoning. The procedure for optimal risk management is to determine the minimum cost to achieve each of the integrated assessments using a matrix convolution. This is a problem about backpacks, which is effectively solved by the method of dichotomous programming with integer values of parameters. The first number in the matrix is the value of the estimate, the second is the cost of achieving (or maintaining) this estimate. Moving from the bottom to the top, we obtain for each integrated assessment the min-imum cost (to reduce the degree of danger from high to medium and low). To do this, from the cells of the matrix with the same estimates (the first number) choose a cell with minimal costs (the second cell). The formation of a variant of the program, ie a set of estimates of factors that provide the required value of the integrated assessment with minimal costs, is the method of reversal. To do this, sequentially, from top to bottom, determine which source data corresponds to the selected cell of the matrix. Having set these values we find them in the lower level matrices. We repeat this until we reach the lower level of the structure of the dichotomous representation, ie specific assessments of risk factors. The set of these estimates is the result of the algorithm.

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