O. Savchenko, S. Harbuz, N. Harkava. Mortality from fire in Ukraine (1993–2021): a longitudinal analysis with comparator countries. P. 96-107.

Mortality from fire in Ukraine (1993–2021): a longitudinal analysis with comparator countries

 

Savchenko Oleksandr

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1305-7415

 

Harbuz Serhii

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6345-6214

 

Harkava Neliia

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9565-4036

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2026-43-6

 

Keywords: fire mortality, trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, longitudinal analysis

 

Аnnotation

 

This article examines the dynamics of the fire mortality index M₁₀₀ (number of fire deaths per 100 registered fires) in Ukraine over 1993–2021, based on official data from the CTIF Centre for Fire Statistics (World Fire Statistics, Reports No. 1–30) and the NFPA. The study applies a phenomeno-logical approach: observable patterns in the M₁₀₀ time series are compared with external institutional events, without constructing a formal causal model. Three research tasks are addressed. First, five structural phases are identified in the Ukrainian M₁₀₀ time series: gradual increase 1993–1999 (mean 4.57); critical maximum 2000–2008 (peak 8.39 in 2005); first systemic decline 2009–2013 (mean 4.92); accelerated decrease 2014–2018 (mean 2.58); stabilisation 2019–2021 (mean 2.00). Overall M₁₀₀ declined 71 % over 2003–2021. Second, for three consecutive intervals linear regression confirms a statistically significant rise 1993–2008 (slope +0.342, R²=0.912) and the most intensive fall 2009–2016 (slope –0.574, R²=0.821, p<0.01); the Mann–Kendall test confirms monotonic decrease for 2009–2016 (τ=–0.74, p<0.001) and absence of monotonic trend for 2017–2021 (τ=–0.20, p=0.63), in-dicating the formation of a “new plateau.” The 2013–2015 SESU restructuring is identified as the key institutional inflection point, reducing M₁₀₀ from 4.08 to 2.45 (–40 %) within two years. Third, com-parative analysis with four comparator countries covers 2013–2021 annual data and 1993–2021 phase-based analysis. Average Ukrainian M₁₀₀ (2.55) exceeds the US by 9.7×, Poland by 6.9×, Germany by 13.9×, France by 26.0×. The gap between Ukraine and the closest comparator (2.18 units) exceeds the M₁₀₀ range among comparators (0.27 units) eightfold and is stable across the full 30-year horizon. Op-erational and organisational reforms have exhausted their potential; structural expansion of the fire-rescue network through voluntary fire protection (KSRG/NFPA 1720/SDIS) with location optimisa-tion at the level of territorial communities is the principal avenue for further progress.

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Received by the editorial board: 10.03.2026

Accepted for publication: 13.04.2026

Date of publication (release): 30.05.2026