I. Neklonskyi, O. Smyrnov. Risk-based approach to the implementation of the technology of the disposal of anti-tank reactive projectile. Р. 66-80.

 

Risk-based approach to the implementation of the technology of the disposal of anti-tank reactive projectile

 

Neklonskyi Ihor

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5561-4945

 

Smіrnov Oleg

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1237-8700

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2024-39-5

 

Keywords: ammunition, disposal, technology, management model, risk, fuzzy set, matrix

 

Аnnotation

 

To ensure a high level of man-made and environmental safety during the disposal of ammunition, a set and sequence of operations for discharging anti-tank guided missiles is proposed. At the same time, rational extraction of all necessary components is ensured for further use in new quality. In order to increase the efficiency of the technological risk management process during the implementation of the relevant technology, a method of processing expert-linguistic information during the quantitative assessment of the decisions made regarding risk minimization is proposed. The method is based on the application of fuzzy set theory methods. The implementation of this method involves the description of the subsets of the term set by a system of five corresponding functions belonging to the trapezoidal form with respect to the nodal points, followed by solving the problem by means of fuzzy set theory. A statistical method is used to process expert information. This makes it possible to investigate the impact of failures in each component (technological operation) on the state of the system. For comprehensive assessment, the ranking method is used, which is based on the idea of distributing the degree of belonging of the elements of the universal set according to their ranks. The Fishburne method was used to determine the priority coefficients of partial factors. The value of the generalized additive risk indicator was obtained, which will characterize the disposal process in the so-called ideal environment. It is assumed that the risk of an accident in a real environment will be assessed by the degree of deviation from the ideal environment. This approach is considered within the framework of the risk management model, which involves the application of the Markov analysis method based on the concept of "states" ("readiness", "failure"). This makes it possible to process the results using formal logic methods during expert risk assessment. The work is a continuation of the cycle of research aimed at the development and implementation of new highly effective technologies for the disposal of ammunition.

 

References

 

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