Statistical regulations of the occurrence of fires in cities during marital state

Kovalenko Roman

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2083-7601

Nazarenko Sergii

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0891-0335

Muhlyk Eduard

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4850-3566

Semkiv Valeriia

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1584-4754

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2023-38-13

Keywords: fire, martial law, statistical hypothesis, law of distribution, emergency and rescue formation, Pearson’s test

Аnnotation

The process of the occurrence of fires in cities located near the demarcation line during martial law was studied. The subject of the study is statistical regularities that allow us to describe the process of fire occurrence in cities during martial law. Data on fires that occurred in seventeen urban settlements of Ukraine, which are in the immediate vicinity of the demarcation line for the period of 2022, were processed. Statistical hypotheses that allow describing the flow of fires that periodically occurred in cities during the studied period, as well as the time intervals between the moments of their occurrence, have been verified. It has been established that the number of fires that periodically occur on the territory of cities during martial law cannot be described by the Poisson distribution law. Instead, for 59 % of the studied cities, the hypothesis about the geometric law of distribution was confirmed. For some cities in which the number of fires was less than 50 during the period of 2022, it was not possible to obtain any results. It was established that for 35 % of the total number of analyzed cities, the statistical hypothesis about the possibility of describing the time intervals between the occurrence of fires by the exponential law of distribution was confirmed. A much worse result was obtained when testing the possibility of describing the time intervals between the occurrence of fires by other distribution laws. Therefore, if it is necessary to describe the process of the occurrence of fires in urban settlements during martial law, it is necessary to study each individual case by probabilistic laws. The research results can be used to build information systems to support decision-making by management involved in the elimination of the consequences of dangerous events and emergency situations related to fires.

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