M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv
National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine
Keywords: emergency situation due to ammunition explosions, optimization of resource provision, liquidation of emergency situations, forecasting, mobile assistance center
The organizational and technical method of formation of resource provision of response to emergencies of technogenic character of regional level, in particular, arising as a result of explosions of ammunition on arsenals and warehouses is developed. The new scientific result consists of a number of mathematical models developed within the framework of the ideology of the scenario approach to forecasting the amount of resource response to emergencies due to munitions explosions, taking into account the uncertainty of their parameters at the stage of strategic planning. Proposed and introduced the concept of a mobile assistance center, which expands the concept of mobile control points, which allows the development of organizational framework for emergency response to ammunition explosions. Components of the organizational and technical method under consideration are the method of determining the parameters of the affected area of a possible emergency situation at the regional level due to ammunition explosions, which allows to take into account the spatial distribution of its consequences, the need for life emergency zone infrastructure. It is shown that when building a strategic emergency response plan at the regional level due to munitions explosions, based on the study of available statistics, by making operational management decisions may be reasonable formation of characteristics of the distribution of parameters of a possible emergency, which is input to formalized scenario approach. The paper builds an information environment and presents the results of numerous experiments to determine the set of scenarios on the example of an emergency situation due to explosions of ammunition in the military arsenal of ammunition in Balaklia, Kharkiv region, March 23, 2017.
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