Scientific Journal Problems of Emergency Situations — K. Afanasenko, S. Holovchenko, O. Hryhorenko, T. Kostenko, O. Ivanenko. Assessment of impact by explosion hazards as a quantitative criterion for risk management. P. 68- 79.

The paper develops a scientific and methodological approach to assessing human injury from hazardous factors of ammunition explosion as a quantitative criterion for risk management at civil protection and critical infrastructure facilities under the conditions of armed aggression against Ukraine. It is shown that current safety practices are predominantly based on deterministic approaches (“safe – unsafe”), leading to subjective decisions on protective distances, shelters and structural reinforcement. An integrated indicator of individual risk of severe or fatal injury is proposed. This indicator combines scenario frequency, probability of human exposure in the affected zone and conditional probability of injury. The conditional probability of injury is determined by probit analysis for primary and tertiary mechanisms (lung injury, head and body impact) and a stochastic model that accounts for the non-uniform spatial distribution of fragments for secondary mechanisms. Models for each injury mechanism are systematized. A scheme for using the proposed criterion for territorial zoning, selection of protective measures and assessment of residual risk after their implementation is developed. The approach is fully compatible with the requirements of the Civil Protection Code of Ukraine, the Law “On Critical Infrastructure” and subordinate acts of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (Orders No. 627, 836, 611; CMU Resolution No. 367). Advantages and limitations of the method are substantiated, including the need to calibrate empirical coefficients for modern ammunition and to account for fragment field heterogeneity. The research results enable the transition from qualitative hazard assessments to quantitative risk-oriented safety management of critical infrastructure facilities. Practical application of the criterion demonstrates the possibility of quantitative substantiation of the priority of protective measures and evaluation of their effectiveness through relative risk reduction, which is particularly relevant for energy and transport facilities under current threats.

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Received by the editorial board: 10.03.2026

Accepted for publication: 13.04.2026

Date of publication (release): 30.05.2026