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A. Kurilo, M. Kustov, S. Zimin, A. Hubenko. Modeling the risks of cascade accidents in rail transport under war conditions. Р. 123-137.

Modeling the risks of cascade accidents in rail transport under war conditions

 

Kurilo Аrtem

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5139-0278

 

Kustov Maksim

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6960-6399

 

Zimin Sergej

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0514-2238

 

Hubenko Andrey

National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0009-0007-3647-3909

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2025-42-9

 

Keywords: railway transport, critical infrastructure, cascade accidents, wartime risks

 

Аnnotation

 

The study aims to improve the resilience of rail transport during the transportation of hazardous chemicals in conditions of martial law. The work provides a comprehensive analysis of current risks to rail infrastructure, compares threats in peacetime and wartime, and identifies key accident scenarios. A library of cascading accident scenarios has been developed, and modified models for assessing risks and the spread of toxic emissions have been proposed, taking into account specific factors of wartime. To improve the accuracy of forecasting, the use of CFD modeling is proposed. The need for this work lies in the fact that classical risk models, effective in peacetime, do not take into account the new nature of threats – targeted attacks, shelling, and sabotage. Rail transport, being critical infrastructure, has become a target for the enemy, and an accident involving hazardous chemicals can lead to catastrophic consequences: large-scale fires, explosions, toxic emissions, and cascading accidents. It has been established that the effectiveness of countermeasures is determined by the speed of hazard detection and readiness for coordinated action in combat conditions. Classic risk assessment models no longer fully reflect the new reality, where deliberate hostile actions are the main factor in accidents. The results obtained and the models developed form the basis for the transition from reactive to proactive risk management. They make it possible to develop adaptive response plans and action algorithms for rescue services, implement preventive routing of dangerous goods and reinforce critical nodes, as well as create an integrated risk management system. This is aimed at minimizing human casualties, environmental damage, and the strategic consequences of infrastructure damage, ensuring the resilience of the country’s transport system in a state of martial law.

 

References

 

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