Рatterns of the occurrence of fires in cities during marital state

Kovalenko Roman

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2083-7601

Nazarenko Sergii

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0891-0335

Muhlyk Eduard

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4850-3566

Ostapov Kostiantyn

National University of Civil Defenсe of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1275-741X

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2024-39-13

Keywords: fire, statistical hypothesis, law of distribution, emergency and rescue formation, Pearson's test

Аnnotation

The process of occurrence of fires in Ukrainian cities with a population of more than 500000 people was studied. The subject of the study is statistical patterns that allow us to describe the process of fire occurrence in Ukrainian cities with a population of more than 500000 people. Data on fires that occurred in the period from 2021 to 2023 have been processed. Statistical data for each city and each year were studied separately. Among statistical regularities, normal and discrete laws of distribution were considered, namely: normal, exponential, gamma, lognormal, chi-square, Poisson and geometric. It was expected that the process of the occurrence of fires can be described by the Poisson distribution law, given that many of the previously analyzed works considered this to be the case. It was established that neither before the introduction of martial law nor after its introduction, the process of occurrence of fires in Ukrainian cities with a population of more than 500000 people cannot be described by the Poisson distribution law. Instead, in some cases, this process can be described by an exponential distribution law, which is not entirely clear. In addition, no dependence was found between the calculated values of the standard deviation and the investigated statistical regularities of the occurrence of fires. The study is limited by the fact that it is not possible to compare the obtained results with other similar studies carried out between 2021 and 2023 for other cities around the world. The main drawback of these studies is that the possibility of obtaining statistical data on fires for previous periods in the cities of Ukraine is limited. Accordingly, it does not allow determining which statistical laws of distribution described or did not describe the process of the occurrence of fires in that time period. In the future, it is planned to investigate the possibility of establishing a distribution law for the process of fire occurrence in cities with a population of less than 500000 people.

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