Scientific Journal Problems of Emergency Situations - R. Kovalenko, S. Nazarenko, V. Demianyshyn, O. Kolienov, V. Semkiv. Study of fire flow statistics occurring in cities. P. 134-143.

The flow of calls related to fires occurring on the territory of cities has been investigated. To do this, using the methods of cluster analysis, the cities were divided into groups according to the criteria of population size and area. As a result, the cities were grouped into six groups. Only Kiev was included in a separate group. Further, five cities were selected from each of the groups and statistics on the number of fires for the period of 2020 were processed. Based on the data obtained, a statistical hypothesis was tested that the flow of fires occurring in cities can be described by the Poisson distribution law. The Romanovsky criterion was chosen as the consistency criterion. In total, out of 26 cities under study in 7 cities, the call flow can be described by the Poisson distribution law. The indicator of the call flow associated with fires for these cities ranged from 69 to 342. The only city in this range for which the previously mentioned hypothesis was not confirmed was the city of Kherson. For cities where the annual fire rate was less than 69 or more than 342, the statistical hypothesis of Poisson call traffic was not confirmed. Variance was also calculated based on the data reflecting the daily number of calls in cities during the year. It was found that for cities for which the Poisson distribution of the call flow was confirmed, this indicator ranges from 0.21 to 1.72. Accordingly, the flow of fires that occurs in cities cannot always be described by the Poisson distribution law, and therefore, before using the mathematical models built on its basis for research, it is necessary to first test this hypothesis. Failure to fulfill the above condition may further negatively affect the adequacy of the results obtained.

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