Mathematical model of prevention of emergencies caused by fire of radioactively-polluted forests

Taras Kachur

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1683-956X

Vitaliy Sobyna

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6908-8037

Dmytro Taraduda

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9167-0058

Maksym Dement

National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4975-384X

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4400131

Keywords: emergency, radioactive contamination, emergency prevention, fire, forest, unmanned aerial vehicle, mathematical model

Abstract

The mathematical model of prevention of emergencies caused by fires in radioactively contaminated forests is theoretically substantiated. The model is a system of three analytical dependences: the first allows to calculate the probability of detection of a radioactive harbinger of forest fire depending on the geometric dimensions of the controlled forest area, search time and search effort applied and determined by search strategies; the second allows you to calculate the value of search effort (search performance) depending on the geometric dimensions of the radioactive anomaly and the range of its detection by the main and additional channels; the third determines the detection range of a radioactive anomaly depending on the speed and altitude of unmanned aerial vehicles. An experimental verification of the efficiency of the proposed mathematical model with the help of a laboratory setup and methods of conducting experiments with its use. Thus, it is established that especially in the early stages of ignition, the spherical law works: the wave front expands like the walls of a cylinder, and the radiation intensity decreases in proportion to the distance. This means that as a result of relaxation processes occurring in the atmosphere, the attenuation of radiation by a value whose specific value depends on the frequency of radiation and some physical parameters of the surface layers of the atmosphere. Taking into account the results obtained in the work in preventing the development of an emergency caused by a fire in a radioactively contaminated forest allows the emergency response manager to make the right management decisions and ensure safe working conditions for rescuers. Further research is planned to develop a methodology for forecasting emergencies caused by fires in radioactively contaminated forests using reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles.

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